The fight for football supremacy in Florida is never quiet. Three programs. Three different trajectories. And one question driving the next three years: who controls the state on the football field and on the recruiting trail? A new Locked On College Crossover episode brought the Gators, Hurricanes, and Seminoles together to break down where each program stands and where each one is heading.
Miami Holds the On‑Field Edge
Miami enters 2026 as the clear leader in the state. The Hurricanes made the College Football Playoff last season. They won three postseason games and came within six points of a national championship. They didn’t win the ACC. However, they proved they can win on the biggest stage.
Miami replaces Carson Beck with Darian Mensah, a quarterback they said he has a higher ceiling. The Hurricanes also return elite weapons at receiver and running back, including Malachi Tony and Cooper Barkate.
Their 2026 schedule is manageable. Clemson on the road. Florida State at home. Virginia Tech under new coach, James Franklin. Notre Dame in South Bend. Miami should win 10 to 11 games. They enter the season with unfinished business.
Florida State Faces a Crisis
Florida State’s projections have to be blunt. Mike Norvell is expected to be fired probably after the Miami game. The Seminoles are not projected to reach a bowl game. The only optimism comes from individual players. Names include Deuce Robinson, Usman Croma, and corner Jabril Rawls, all viewed as future NFL talent. But the roster strength doesn’t change the overall outlook.
Recruiting is the biggest problem. Recruits won’t commit because they believe Norvell is a lame‑duck coach. One example: a Tampa recruit who grew up a Florida State fan didn’t even take an official visit. The suggested replacement by many is Indiana defensive coordinator Brian Haynes. He praised for disciplined, mistake‑free defense.
The Gators Stabilize Under John Sumrall
Florida is finally moving forward again. New head coach John Sumrall arrives with strong momentum from Tulane and Troy. Florida is expected to improve quickly, especially in recruiting. The Gators are stacking talent for 2027 and 2028. Linemen Karan Wheeler and Maxwell Hiller are major recruiting wins. The Florida’s boosters (the Bull Gator Club) are spending aggressively again.
The expectation for 2026 is 7 to 8 wins. Over the next three years, success means advancing past the first round of the playoff at least once.
Recruiting: Miami Leads, Florida Rising, Florida State Stalled
Miami continues to dominate the recruiting trail. The Hurricanes already have 19 commits and are nearly finished with their class. They have multiple five‑stars committed:
- Israel Abrams, quarterback
- Nick Lanier, wide receiver
- Dante Wright, cornerback
- Jaden Bryant, defensive end
Florida is improving but won’t catch Miami in 2027. Maybe 2028 could be the year Florida challenges Miami’s recruiting momentum. Florida State cannot compete until they make a coaching change and rebuild their staff.
What Success Looks Like in the Next Three Years
Miami
Win the ACC for the first time ever. Win a national championship within three years. Anything less is viewed as falling short.
Florida
Win 7–8 games in 2026. Reach the playoff and win at least one game within three years.
Florida State
Win enough games in 2026 to justify firing Norvell. Rebuild under a new coach. Restart recruiting from the ground up.
The State of Florida’s three major programs are heading in three different directions. Miami is chasing a title. Florida is rebuilding with purpose. Florida State is stuck until leadership changes. The next three years will decide who controls the state — and who gets left behind.
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